http://jtonedm.com/2008/04/28/live-from-interact-ian-ayres/ James Taylor on Everything Decision Management Sat, 20 Mar 2010 01:10:43 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 http://jtonedm.com/2008/04/28/live-from-interact-ian-ayres/comment-page-1/#comment-9923 Neil Raden Wed, 07 May 2008 22:41:56 +0000 http://jtonedm.com/?p=380#comment-9923 James, I'm not so sure about confidence intervals (70% sure LOL). Do people who are not familiar with these techniques know what to do with a 95% vs, 99% vs 75% confidence interval? It's not the final answer, it's a statistic. You hit on the head though about why people routinely make worse judgments than models. Just go to Harmony.com and see if it matches you with your spouse!! Seriously, a super cruncher is dispassionate about the attributes that affect the outcome, people are not.   James,
I’m not so sure about confidence intervals (70% sure LOL). Do people who are not familiar with these techniques know what to do with a 95% vs, 99% vs 75% confidence interval? It’s not the final answer, it’s a statistic.
You hit on the head though about why people routinely make worse judgments than models. Just go to Harmony.com and see if it matches you with your spouse!! Seriously, a super cruncher is dispassionate about the attributes that affect the outcome, people are not.
 

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